Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
