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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as China escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.